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    Hustle, life, and Bernoulli trials

    I watched this short Casey Neistat video again this morning and it made me think about hustle. Does hustle actually lead to success, or is it all just luck?

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    Click through for source

    The answer is yes, both. Lemme explain ๐Ÿ‘‡

    In the video Casey makes a point that life is like going the wrong way on a conveyor belt. Stand still and move backwards. You gotta hustle to get ahead. Run faster than the belt.

    But does hustle actually work or is it just a platitude?

    We live in a probabilistic universe so nothing is ever guaranteed. Luck plays a HUGE role. "Luck" doesn't mean what you think it means, however. You can create luck.

    Back in 1713 Bernoulli derived a formula for the expected outcome of a series of independent experiments. How likely are you to get at least N heads after flipping a coin K times?


    Here's the formula:

    N over K multiplied by probability(heads)^K times probability(not_heads)^N-K

    Math is hard and this is 2019 so you can use Wolfram Alpha and iteration to figure out your chance of success.

    Say each of your things has a 10% chance of going viral ๐Ÿ‘‰ P=0.1, Q= 1-0.1 = 0.9

    According to Bernoulli you can expect at least 1 success after 10 things with a 65% probability.


    The same is true for everything you do. Applying for jobs, launching side projects, creating open source, founding startups, companies, or just cooking a fantastic meal.

    Take probability of success, add hustle, use Bernoulli to see how long it takes :)

    Sure, life isn't quite a series of independent experiments ๐Ÿ‘‰Your experience compounds, you learn stuff, you get more resources. Bernoulli trials are still a great framework to keep in mind.

    The more often you try, the more likely you are to succeed.

    Enjoy your 4-day weekend โœŒ๏ธ


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    Published on July 2nd, 2019 in Learning, Personal

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