If you've been following tech news lately, things feel ... 😖 Between the layoffs, hiring freezes, investors suddenly caring about revenue, and whatever the heck stock markets are doing, we're in for a rough time.
I read Ray Dalio's Principles for a Changing World Order recently and that did not help me feel better, I'll tell you that. His argument is similar to Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century – the US Empire is at its peak and after a peak, well, you know ...
But economists have correctly predicted 9 of the past 5 recessions. The sky is always falling 🤷♀️
I don't know what's going to happen. Nobody does. We're taking bets with our actions.
Here's what I do know:
- US unemployment is at 3.5%, the lowest it's been in 50 years
- Global unemployment is just 7.48% – 5% for OECD countries
- Tech unemployment is 2.3%, up from 1.7%
To put that in perspective, there have never been as many people with jobs as there are today.
Over 153 million Americans have jobs – that means more Americans are working today than ever in U.S. history.
— President Biden (@POTUS) October 10, 2022
Why now to focus on your career
Despite the high job growth and low unemployment, tech is down. That has a chilling effect on what we do as engineers.
Investors are less excited to throw money around. Founders become more shy. Business people think "Do we need to make this bet right now or can it wait?"
And when everyone is playing defense, you should play offense.
Don't start playing defense with your career.https://t.co/V9iWNQAdmA
— Senior Engineer Mindset (@SeniorMindset) July 12, 2022
When the economy is ass but you're still seeing people get $500K offers pic.twitter.com/ppcrltRbGr
— Adam Rackis (@AdamRackis) July 12, 2022
After every downswing comes a big upswing. The best days in US stocks have been right after a crash – 1929, 1987, 2008, and basically all of 2021.
Think back to all the tech darlings right now. When did they start? Many come out of the 2008 time period when the economy was rough and talented people couldn't get better jobs than to jump into promising startups.
If you joined one of those at the start of its S-curve ... let's say a lot of big fortunes were made. The Coinbase founder (2013) said on a recent podcast that their IPO minted an estimated 1000 millionaires.
The BigTech downturn can only mean one thing
— Swizec Teller (@Swizec) September 29, 2022
We’re getting an explosion of early stage startups in 1 to 2 years. Things are gonna get interesting again
How playing offense helps you weather a storm
The best recession proofing is a higher salary. That's it.
The best recession proofing is a higher salary pic.twitter.com/GvzGvAeJh6
— Senior Engineer Mindset (@SeniorMindset) September 11, 2022
The more money you make and save now, the less you need later. And with that opportunity to solve bigger and better challenges, finding the next job is even easier.
Like I said in the fireside chat in yesterday's email: Being able to say "I experienced a company growing from 40 to 400 in two years" trumps anything else I've ever done to the right kind of company.
That's where positioning statements and having a vision comes in – What do you want to do? What fires you up?
Are you doing the things that get you there?
If now sounds like the right time, consider getting a copy of the Senior Engineer Mindset book and audio
Cheers,
~Swizec
PS: the updated Senior Engineer Mindset book package goes up in price for every 100 purchases
Become a *true* Senior Engineer
Get promoted, earn a bigger salary, work for top companies
Getting that senior title is easy. Just stick around. Being a true senior takes a new way of thinking. Do you have it?
The Senior Minset email crash course
Get a free chapter from the Senior Engineer Mindset book and a sample audiobook chapter, followed by a Senior Mindset 101 email course.
You'll get insights to apply at your work right away.
Have a burning question that you think I can answer? Hit me up on twitter and I'll do my best.
Who am I and who do I help? I'm Swizec Teller and I turn coders into engineers with "Raw and honest from the heart!" writing. No bullshit. Real insights into the career and skills of a modern software engineer.
Want to become a true senior engineer? Take ownership, have autonomy, and be a force multiplier on your team. The Senior Engineer Mindset ebook can help 👉 swizec.com/senior-mindset. These are the shifts in mindset that unlocked my career.
Curious about Serverless and the modern backend? Check out Serverless Handbook, for frontend engineers 👉 ServerlessHandbook.dev
Want to Stop copy pasting D3 examples and create data visualizations of your own? Learn how to build scalable dataviz React components your whole team can understand with React for Data Visualization
Want to get my best emails on JavaScript, React, Serverless, Fullstack Web, or Indie Hacking? Check out swizec.com/collections
Did someone amazing share this letter with you? Wonderful! You can sign up for my weekly letters for software engineers on their path to greatness, here: swizec.com/blog
Want to brush up on your modern JavaScript syntax? Check out my interactive cheatsheet: es6cheatsheet.com
By the way, just in case no one has told you it yet today: I love and appreciate you for who you are ❤️